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The present work intended to apply advanced ML models for precise delineation of LVS and in aim to improve the likelihood of accuracy of the ML models, the study also proposed a new feature selection and evidential belief function based hybrid ensemble machine learning model. In: IDS Discussion Paper 296, p 33. Summary report. population into vulnerability groups, although this can be accomplished using quantitative survey methods. Calculating the LVI 27 3.4.1.2. Most studies have focused either on national scale of vulnerability of fisheries systems (e.g. But the future livelihood vulnerability is also intimately linked with technological, demographic, and socioeconomic trends and how they influence the ability of fishery-dependent households and communities to adapt. Survey question was based on the subcomponents or indicators as pre-, socioeconomic uniqueness of the studied community. About 4.1% of the households are in the high doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.015, CARE (2009) Climate vulnerability and capacity analysis handbook. decline about 17.7% and 21.28% due to climate change in 2050 and 2100 respectively in without adaptation To calculate the LVI we used a balanced weighted average approach where each sub component contributes equally to the overall index though each major component is comprised of a different number Z-test and ANOVA were conducted to determine significant differences, respectively, between two and more than two data sets. ILRI, project report. 2018). The economic structure transformation is. In: Paper No.91 in Climate Change Series, p 106. Ambio 36:350–358. doi:10.1023/a:1005627828199, Kovats RS, Bouma MJ, Hajat S, Worrall E, Haines A (2003) El Niño and health. The coastal region in which both communities lie will likely experience climate change impacts as predicted for Bangladesh as a whole, including increases in floods (Mirza 2003, 2011), temperature (MoEF 2005) and wind speed (Emanuel 1987), sea-level rise (MoEF 2005), and seasonal changes in rainfall (Agrawala et al. agricultural households in the district of Boukombe and Kérou. Article  Results show that the overall LVI of Phu Huu village located in the early flooded zone is higher than that of Ta Danh village located in the late flooded zone. The Himalayan country like Nepal, due to its poor adaptive capacity and limited access to alternate means of livelihoods, is more vulnerable to climate change. Without livelihood diversification, dependency on fisheries becomes pronounced and so does livelihood vulnerability because fishing and fish processing have high exposure to cyclones, floods, and variations in maximum temperature and rainfall. In: Kenedy, perception, awareness and adaptation to climate, . There is room for refining indicator-based approaches to vulnerability assessment as better indicators, models, and data become available. John F. Kennedy School. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Based on a survey, of 335 farm household data, complemented with secondary data on, climate factors, a composite index was calculated and differential, vulnerabilities were compared. Participatory Vulnerability and Capability Analysis..... 78 Appendix IX. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.009, Watts MJ, Bohle HG (1993) The space of vulnerability: the causal structure of hunger and famine. The findings help in designing site-specific intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders to climate change. The author adapted the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) measure from Hahn et al. Available at SSRN, Review of Disaster. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts, namely Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu representing three major ecological zones: mountain, mid-hill and Terai (lowland). Department of Fisheries, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Downing TE, Ringius L, Hulme M, Waughray D (1997) Adapting to climate change in Africa. Here, the, experience in this study suggests that the designing of indicators required extensive review. Padma is more exposed to climate variability and change than Kutubdia Para (Tables 1, 3, 4). Norwegian University, . Some of the farmers, however, have been reluctant to shift their farming cycle away from the triple-rice cropping system because of livelihood security-related concerns. These are now discussed in greater detail. Les facteurs tels que l'âge, l'autochtonie, la superficie emblavée, le revenu du ménage et le nombre de sources de revenu réduisent la vulnérabilité aux conditions de vie. East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii. 2011). Livelihood vulnerability index/LVI-IPCC is a measure of vulnerability of farmer households in disaster-prone areas with three measurement indicators, namely, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. They are served with limited physical infrastructure and often lack access to basic services such as education, health care, water, credit, and insurance (Olago et al. Femaleheaded households are more vulnerable than male-headed ones, ... Femaleheaded households are more vulnerable than male-headed ones [53,55]. The most useful indicators of vulnerability have construct validity, are sensitive enough to capture variation, and broad enough to be transferable (Vincent 2007). and prioritize adaptation and mitigation needs. These two districts are more affected by climatic phenomena such as cyclones, tidal fluctuation, and salinity intrusion than other coastal areas of Bangladesh (Agrawala et al. For instance, during cyclone Sidr some of the household heads of Padma remained at sea or otherwise outside of their home, and due to lack of adults the households were less able to move their members and assets in a timely way. The correlation with LVS and three individual models (exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity) exhibited that the Exposure model was highly correlated (r = 0.87) with high statistical significance (0.001 level). Consequently, the local citizens have to play their critical role to assist government policies in order to enhance resilience at the community level. This index was developed by Hahn, Riederer, and Foster (2009) and is based on the IPCC's definition of vulnerability. measured by the number of natural disasters that have occurred in the past 6 years, while climate variability is measured by the average standard deviation of the maximum. IPCC) for Pa Vay Su, Hien Luong, and Moc Chau commune. This research provides an important starting point for directing future research into the vulnerability of fishery-based livelihood systems to climate variability and change. Financial capital, particularly income, is also an important indicator of adaptive capacity. We analysed vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods to climate variability and change using a combination of composite index and qualitative methods. This study computes and compares these indices for livestock small-holders in the GRB, which includes all Nepal’s major J. Panthi et al. Ecol Econ 57:122–139. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00424.x, MRAG (2011) Fisheries and livelihood. When the main components were reviewed by subcomponents (i.e. Pakistan is the world’s most susceptible country to extreme climatic events, such as floods. change: Evidence from Northwest Vietnam. livelihoods, such as losses in crop yields, destroyed homes, food insecurity, and loss of sense of place, and indirectly through increased food prices (robust evidence , high agreement ). International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DFID (1999) Sustainable livelihoods guidance sheets. Vulnerability Index • In order to deal with the new dimensions, we need to understand geological, social, economic and political vulnerabilities of cities that we don’t underst and to date in a A Situational Analysis of Agricultural Produc-. It was found that agriculture was the most impacted resources. . Adaptive capacity is underpinned by the combination of physical, natural, and financial capital and is influenced by the diversity of livelihood strategies. The fishermen livelihood vulnerability assessment was conducted on the impacts of climate variability. For this purpose, a Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) was developed underlying the definition of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change con-sisting of 28 indicators and 7 LVI components. Crop insurance could act as an effective tool for managing risks in Pakistan. Sage Publications Inc., Thousand Oaks, Mirza MQ (2003) Three recent extreme floods in Bangladesh: a hydro-meteorological analysis. Together, these factors shape access to livelihood assets, livelihood strategies, and ultimately livelihood outcomes (Bebbington 1999). Rapidly changing hydrological conditions under climate change, upstream developments, and local water in-frastructures require transformative changes in water management strategies for the agriculture sector in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). J Envi-, impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal. should be taken into account for reducing livelihood vulnerability of these villages. We modelled LVS for overall condition, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity. Understanding the complex dynamics of a household's livelihood and potential vulnerabilities in the face of climate change is challenging. 2009) (Table 2). The study found that relationship between household revenue and weather doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0186-5, Jones L, Ludi E, Levine S (2010) Towards a characterisation of adaptive capacity: a framework for analysing adaptive capacity at the local level. Land policy for socioeconomic development in Vietnam. LVI in all communities shows significant and strong relationships with SCP (0.594, p<0.01), AI (0.545, p<0.01) and CPA (0.434, p<0.01). Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report. Vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods to the impacts of climate variability and change: insights from coastal Bangladesh, $${\text{index}}_{\text{Si}} = \frac{{S_{i} - S_{ \hbox{min} } }}{{S_{ \hbox{max} } - S_{ \hbox{min} } }} $$, $$V \, = \, \left( {E \, + \, S \, + \, \left( {1 - {\text{AC}}} \right)} \right)/3 $$, $$V \, = \, E \, \times \, S \, \times \, \left( {1 - {\text{AC}}} \right) $$, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(99)00104-7, www.mrag.co.uk/Documents/PolicyBrief4_Livelihoods.pdf, http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=993, http://www.quest-fish.org.uk/description.html, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0487-6. In many fields, this approach has been used, such as climate change, disaster, urbanization, landslide, flooding, social change, and land-use change (Huang et al., 2012;Hahn et al., 2009;Williams et al., 2018; Household-level food security in coastal wetland communities in Trinidad and Tobago experience increasing challenges in the face of climatic change. We use a composite index approach to calculate livelihood vulnerability and qualitative methods to understand how exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity measured by sub-indices produce vulnerability. livelihood strategies employed, and the stren, measured by assessing the current state of a commune, The major components are combined into the LVI, tributing factor. A vulnerability index is a measure of the exposure of a population to some hazard. Our results suggest that exposure to floods and cyclones, sensitivity (such as dependence on small-scale marine fisheries for livelihoods), and lack of adaptive capacity in terms of physical, natural, and financial capital and diverse livelihood strategies construe livelihood vulnerability in different ways depending on the context. Although this research follows a mixed-method research strategy, we developed this article by the empirical findings obtained from a quantitative research method. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(03)14695-8, Laska S, Morrow BH (2006) Social vulnerabilities and hurricane Katrina: an unnatural disaster in New Orleans. Population is only, The economy depends heavily on agriculture with low economic ef, the highest number of poor HHs in the country. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0164-y, Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. The selection of indicators often involves a trade-off between specificity, transferability, accuracy, and certainty (Vincent 2007). In: . Risk attitude and risk perception of floods for each farm household were calculated and used as independent variables. 2009). The normalised adaptive capacity sub-index was inverted (1- index) for inclusion in the vulnerability index because the potential impact (which is a function of exposure and sensitivity) of climate variability and change may be offset, reduced or modified by adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report. (2009). strategies and social networks; exposure to climate change and climate-induced extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts; and access to services and infrastructure. Although it was not possible to distinguish exposure between the classes of households in a community, vulnerability matrices identify floods and cyclones are the main determinants of livelihood vulnerability in the two communities but how exposure creates livelihood vulnerability depends on the context of each community. Household data were collected for a representative sample of 138 households in the Nariva and Caroni communities. Most household heads are male with limited formal education. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to. was statistically indifferent between three districts with respect to following: percentage of. Padma is home to 4,204 people in 908 households. An Giang province of the Mekong Delta is the most vulnerable province to flood and climate variability impacts. Factors such as age, autochthony, area sown, household income and number of income sources reduce vulnerability to livelihoods. Particular consideration of system dynamics is required in future. Land erosion and sea-level rise have resulted in the displacement (and resettlement in nearby areas) of about 5 % of the households (estimated from qualitative data) in Padma over the past three decades but none in Kutubdia Para. These results resonate with research that has found that the most vulnerable households and communities are usually also poor (e.g. For HHs survey, respondents from sample HHs were selected randomly, and approximately 120 HHs in each, The HH survey was conducted in January 2015 to March 2015 by 10 specialists who were, properly trained in an intensive training session before the questionnaire pretest. www.mrag.co.uk/Documents/PolicyBrief4_Livelihoods.pdf. Résultats. However, “many of these indicators cannot be quantified, and many of the component functions can only be qualitatively described” (Yohe and Tol 2002, p. 27). Researchers collected household data for eight types of assets, which were aggregated into composite LVIs and differential vulnerabilities of the two communities being compared. This study applied livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood effect index (LEI) to assess vulnerability from climate variability and change of three agricultural and natural resources dependent commune in northwest Vietnam, a country that is expected to bear some of the most severe impacts of climate change. This work also supported by the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) and Sustainability Research Institute of the University of Leeds, Carls Wallace Trust, UK, and Annesha Group, Bangladesh. Thus, sustainable development and effective management approach help to adapt to the changes to come. Therefore, we stress that users must be cautious about applying the approach and interpret-, ing the results and its need for further research. Since settling in Kutubdia Para, households have experienced two major cyclones and associated floods in 1991 (named Gorki) and 1997 (Table 1). agriculture for their livelihoods. Objectif. mandated to carry out livelihood vulnerability analysis and its aim is to provide timely analysis for emergency interventions as well as medium to long-term programming. 2007). However, different advanced machine learning (ML) models successfully applied for predicting different physical vulnerability. Formal loans are almost informal credit entirely for the, production and asset accumulation (Isabel, rarely used to ease shocks due to climate change, however, is that it takes time to apply for a, loan and HHs are locally screened; any income or consumption shocks may be reported to. Results obtained from the survey conducted in 2018 and 2019 explore the co-existence of climate change vulnerability and resilience at the rural household level. From these data LVI of each village was calculated. Typically, the index is a composite of multiple quantitative indicators that via some formula, delivers a single numerical result. The data were collected during October 2010 and between February and July 2011 using a multi-method approach. For example, according to oral history interviews, not having coconut or palm trees in or near the homestead restricts the ability of some households of Padma to take shelter during a flood. 2009), and at the local scale, vulnerability assessments of agricultural livelihood systems dominate (e.g. A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, PR China; College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F, This study applied livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood, change of three agricultural and natural resources dependent, some of the most severe impacts of climate change. Mar Technol Soc J 40:16–26. 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